ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted normal operating procedures at transplant centers. With the possibility that COVID-19 infection carries an overall 4% mortality rate and potentially a 24% mortality rate among the immunocompromised transplant recipients, many transplant centers considered the possibility of slowing down and even potentially pausing all transplants. Many proposals regarding the need for pausing organ transplants exist; however, much remains unknown. Whereas the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the overall healthcare system is unknown, the potential impact of pausing organ transplants over a period can be estimated. This study presents a model for evaluating the impact of pausing liver transplants over a spectrum of model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores. Our model accounts for two potential risks of a pause: (1) the waitlist mortality of all patients who do not receive liver transplants during the pause period, and (2) the impact of a longer waiting list due to the pause of liver transplants and the continuous accrual of new patients. Using over 12 years of liver transplant data from the United Network for Organ Sharing and a system of differential equations, we estimate the threshold probability above which a decision maker should pause liver transplants to reduce the loss of patient life months. We also compare different pause policies to illustrate the value of patient-specific and center-specific approaches. Finally, we analyze how capacity constraints affect the loss of patient life months and the length of the waiting list. The results of this study are useful to decision makers in deciding whether and how to pause organ transplants during a pandemic. The results are also useful to patients (and their care providers) who are waiting for organ transplants.
ABSTRACT
Widespread product shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic and other emergencies have prompted several large studies of how to make supply chains more resilient. In this paper, we leverage these studies, as well as the academic literature, to provide a review of our state of knowledge about supply chain resilience. To do this, we (1) classify the failure modes of a supply chain, (2) quantitatively evaluate the level of resilience needed in a supply chain to achieve desired business or societal outcomes, (3) describe a structured framework of actions to enhance supply chain resilience, and (4) use the resulting conceptual paradigm to review the academic literature on supply chain risk and resilience. In each step, we summarize key insights from our current state of understanding, as well as gaps that present opportunities for research and practice. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of IISE Transactions is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)